Can England Still Reach the World Cup Semi-Finals? Yes, but It Now Comes Down to Points Difference
England lost 30-12 to Tonga in their first match, and the format leaves little room for that. Six teams share one table, each plays three games, and only the top two reach the semi-finals. Two wins from here gives England four points. Almost every way through then depends on points difference, and England start that race at minus 18.
The table after round one
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samoa | 1 | 1 | 0 | +74 | 2 |
| 2 | Papua New Guinea | 1 | 1 | 0 | +24 | 2 |
| 3 | Tonga | 1 | 1 | 0 | +18 | 2 |
| 4 | England | 1 | 0 | 1 | -18 | 0 |
| 5 | Lebanon | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | 0 |
| 6 | France | 1 | 0 | 1 | -74 | 0 |
Two points for a win. Teams level on points are separated by points difference, which is points scored minus points conceded. The live World Cup table updates after every game.
What England need
First, beat France and Papua New Guinea. Lose either and England are out. France play England on Saturday 24 October in Perth, a week after conceding 78 points to Samoa. Papua New Guinea, who beat Lebanon 42-18, are the harder game, in Wollongong on Friday 30 October.
Then, results elsewhere. Tonga and Samoa meet on Sunday 1 November, the last game in the table. If they both also win their other games, the winner finishes on six points and the loser on four. If that loser is Samoa, England would need to overtake a points difference that started at plus 74. That is the reason the PA news agency wrote that England’s only realistic hope is Tonga beating Samoa, and England building a better record than the Samoans.
And margins. Any finish on four points is likely to be shared with at least one other team. Every try England score against France and Papua New Guinea, and every one they concede, counts.
What McDermott said
Brian McDermott would not promise a points chase. “We know what’s in front of us now, we’ve got to win the next two games and improve on the things we need to improve on,” he said. “It would be tremendously disrespectful to either France or PNG to suggest we’re going to rack up a load of points.”
He also said he took “tonnes of positives” from the defeat, which may be true and will not move the table.
What is at stake
The Guardian pointed out that England have reached at least the last four at every World Cup they have played. Missing out in 2026 would be a first. England have never won the tournament; the full list of World Cup winners shows how close they have come.
England v France kicks off at 7.35am UK time on Saturday 24 October and England v Papua New Guinea at 9.05am on Friday 30 October, both live on Premier Sports. The full England kick-off times are here, and the Tonga defeat is covered in full.
